Bilgel, FıratKarahasan, Burhan Can2022-06-222022-06-222022Bilgel, F., & Karahasan, B. C. (04 June 2022). Effects of vaccination and the spatio-temporal diffusion of Covid-19 incidence in Turkey. Geographical Analysis. pp. 1-28. https://doi.org/10.1111/gean.123350016-73631538-4632https://doi.org/10.1111/gean.12335https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11779/1791This study assesses the spatio-temporal impact of vaccination efforts on Covid-19 incidence growth in Turkey. Incorporating geographical features of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we adopt a spatial Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) model that serves as a guide of our empirical specification. Using provincial weekly panel data, we estimate a dynamic spatial autoregressive (SAR) model to elucidate the short- and the long-run impact of vaccination on Covid-19 incidence growth after controlling for temporal and spatio-temporal diffusion, testing capacity, social distancing behavior and unobserved space-varying confounders. Results show that vaccination growth reduces Covid-19 incidence growth rate directly and indirectly by creating a positive externality over space. The significant association between vaccination and Covid-19 incidence is robust to a host of spatial weight matrix specifications. Conspicuous spatial and temporal diffusion effects of Covid-19 incidence growth were found across all specifications: the former being a severer threat to the containment of the pandemic than the latter.eninfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessModelsChinaSpaceArticle10.1111/gean.12335361187372-s2.0-85131196774Q2Q1281WOS:000805847100001